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February 03, 2011

No Snow for a Month Then Snow Superbowl Weekend

The Weather makes me angry. I have surgery next week for my sinuses and all I wanted was an epic January. I guess if I want snow I need to live in downtown NYC.

Brian Head got a little over a foot this week and Sunrise got almost two. I am debating taking Friday off and going to Sunrise. I miss Lupe, her Volkswagen moguls, and a lift right above you to mock your struggles. For some reason, that is always the first run I want to take each day. No warm up. No get your ski legs under you. Just let's head to the top and do Lupe real quick.

Sorry for not blogging more, but the damned weather has been so lacking of snow for the Southwest that there is little sense driving to go skiing.

Feb is starting better already. I HOPE!

Posted by Justin at 01:33 PM

October 25, 2010

Super La Nina Coming

Good news for the Pacific Northwest ski season, bad news for Southwest because this La Nina means business:

A super La Nina is developing.

Historically, these strong La Nina events drop the Earth’s average temperature around one degree Fahrenheit, and the drop comes quickly. As a result, some of the same places that had record heat this summer may suffer through record cold this winter.

La Nina is the lesser-known colder sister of El Nino. La Nina chills the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and in turn cools the entire planet for one to two years or more. This chilling has the potential to bring bone-numbing cold to many parts of the world for this and the following winter. As a result, world energy demand may spike in the next one to two years as much colder weather hits many of the major industrial nations.

This La Nina appears to be special, at least so far. It is well on its way to being the strongest of these events since the super La Nina of 1955-1956. During that powerful La Nina that lasted two years, the global average temperature fell nearly one degree Fahrenheit from 1953 to 1956.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures the air pressure difference between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti. The lower the value of the index, the stronger the El Nino typically is. The higher the SOI index, the stronger the La Nina. The September SOI value of +25.0 was the highest of any September going back to 1917, when it was +29.7. During that super La Nina, the global temperature fell 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1915 to 1917. The +25.0 September SOI reading is also the highest for any month dating back to the +31.6 value in November of 1973.

The most recent La Nina developed in the spring of 2007, and persisted until the early summer of 2008. The global average temperature fell one degree Fahrenheit in that period of time, equal to all of the warming of the last 100 years! If the trend of this rapidly developing, potentially super La Nina continues, an equal or larger temperature drop can be anticipated during the next one to two years. This La Nina is coming on very fast and very strong. Already it is colder than the six coldest La Ninas of the last 60 years when they were at a similar stage of development.

This is not good news for the SW resorts in the US, but we shall wait and see what the weather patterns bring.

Posted by Justin at 11:46 AM | Comments (1)

February 09, 2010

Is Global Warming Going to Destroy the Ski Industry?

I don't like to wade too deep into the "Climate Change" waters, but got a link from a reader to story by a local news station about the ski industry:

Already, the Aspen Global Change Institute forecasts that if global emissions continue to rise, the local ski industry will be little more than a memory by 2100.

Among the group’s sobering findings:

“High greenhouse gas emissions scenarios… are likely to end skiing in Aspen by 2100, and possibly well before then, while low emission path scenarios preserve skiing at mid-to-upper mountain elevations. In either case, snow conditions will deteriorate in the future.”

Skeptics of global warming cite images of major blizzards and snowfalls measured by the foot in Midwestern and mountain regions. Williams says those pictures hinder efforts to convince people that a warmer future really is coming.

“It’s a small but constant change,” he said. “It’s hard for people to embrace that.”...

The Williams-Lazar report offered a glass-half-full scenario for Colorado. While other areas face devastation, change appears to be coming more slowly to places like Aspen.

That doesn’t mean it won’t come, even if freak early or late storms seem to paint a different picture.

“The way I think of it is: Do you want to ski with your grandkids? Or do you want your kids to ski with their grandkids?” Williams said.

“That’s about three generations out. That reverberates with people. They get that.”

Interesting. Scares the hell out of people.

Before I look at the methodology, I just want to point out a few things. First, there is a major correlation between the ENSO (El Nino) ocean temperatures and the snowfall in particular in either the Southwest or in the Northwest. Weather patterns caused by El Nino are well documented and there is a strong correlation.

Yet even in the strongest of El Nino years, climatologists cannot predict even within a narrow range of what the snowfall amounts will be. This is an El Nino year. How many inches approximately will Brian Head receive? Somewhere between 300-500". That is about as good as you will get.

And that is a short time horizon. That is only forward looking, say six months tops. If climatologists cannot tell me even a solid ballpark figure of how many inches of snow a particular resort will receive in a year, even as late as say--October, so I know whether or not to buy a season pass or when the opening day will be this season, how in the holy hell should I believe that they can tell me when opening day will be on average in the year 2100? In 2009, A-basin had their earliest opening EVER. October 9th. Climatologists say they can only make predictions about long term trends using fancy "closed source" computer models that have been ripped to shreds for their coding errors, not make short term predictions about anything useful. Water levels will rise several feet by 2100 and submerge half the coastal cities, but tomorrow there is a 40% chance of light showers. 40%? WTF?

Below the fold, I will get into why I am so disgusted by the scare tactics thrown around by the environmental folks that think putting up windmills is somehow going to help Aspen have good snow in 2100. And I won't even get into the Sierra Club saying that switching from coal to nuclear power is like switching from cigarettes to crack.

The study in question relied exclusively on temperature predictions taken directly from the IPCC's 2001 report. The IPCC's methods and claims are certainly in question with the recent scandals.

The folks at the UK Telegraph are all over the IPCC:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report is supposed to be the world’s most authoritative scientific account of the scale of global warming.

But this paper has discovered a series of new flaws in it including:

  • The publication of inaccurate data on the potential of wave power to produce electricity around the world, which was wrongly attributed to the website of a commercial wave-energy company.
  • Claims based on information in press releases and newsletters.
  • New examples of statements based on student dissertations, two of which were unpublished.
  • More claims which were based on reports produced by environmental pressure groups.

They are the latest in a series of damaging revelations about the IPCC’s most recent report, published in 2007.

Last month, the panel was forced to issue a humiliating retraction after it emerged statements about the melting of Himalayan glaciers were inaccurate.

Last weekend, this paper revealed that the panel had based claims about disappearing mountain ice on anecdotal evidence in a student’s dissertation and an article in a mountaineering magazine.

And on Friday, it emerged that the IPCC’s panel had wrongly reported that more than half of the Netherlands was below sea level because it had failed to check information supplied by a Dutch government agency.

Researchers insist the errors are minor and do not impact on the overall conclusions about climate change.

However, senior scientists are now expressing concern at the way the IPCC compiles its reports and have hit out at the panel’s use of so-called “grey literature” — evidence from sources that have not been subjected to scientific ­scrutiny.

A new poll has revealed that public belief in climate change is weakening.The panel’s controversial chair, Rajendra Pachauri, pictured right, is facing pressure to resign over the affair.

That would be Nobel Prize winning Panel Chair...

But that is not the end of the story:

It can also be revealed that claims made by the IPCC about the effects of global warming, and suggestions about ways it could be avoided, were partly based on information from ten dissertations by Masters students.

One unpublished dissertation was used to support the claim that sea-level rise could impact on people living in the Nile delta and other African coastal areas, although the main focus of the thesis, by a student at the Al-Azhar University in Cairo, appears to have been the impact of computer software on environmental development.

The IPCC also made use of a report by US conservation group Defenders of Wildlife to state that salmon in US streams have been affected by rising temperatures. The panel has already come under fire for using information in reports by conservation charity the WWF.

This is just not good science. It gets better for the inventor of the Hockey Stick Graph, Michael Mann:

There has also been an acclaimed new paper by Michael Mann, the creator of the iconic "hockey stick" graph, purporting to show that the world has recently become hotter than at any time in recorded history, eliminating all the wealth of evidence to show that temperatures were higher in the Mediaeval Warm Period than today.

After being used obsessively by the IPCC's 2001 report to promote the cause, the "hockey stick" was comprehensively discredited, not least by Steve McIntyre, a Canadian computer analyst, who showed that Mann had built into his computer programme an algorithm (or "al-gore-ithm") which would produce the hockey stick shape even if the data fed in was just "random noise".

Two weeks ago Dr Mann published a new study, claiming to have used 1,209 new historic "temperature proxies" to show that his original graph was essentially correct after all. This was faithfully reported by the media as further confirmation that we live in a time of unprecedented warming. Steve McIntyre immediately got to work and, supported by expert readers on his Climate Audit website, shredded Mann's new version as mercilessly as he had the original.

He again showed how selective Mann had been in his new data, excluding anything which confirmed the Mediaeval Warming and concentrating on that showing temperatures recently rising to record levels.

Finnish experts pointed out that, where Mann placed emphasis on the evidence of sediments from Finnish lakes, there were particular reasons why these should have shown rising temperatures in recent years, such as expanding towns on their shores. McIntyre even discovered a part of Mann's programme akin to a disguised version of his earlier algorithm, which he now calls "Mannomatics".

But Mann's new study will surely be used to push the warmist party line in the run-up to the IPCC international conference in Copenhagen next year to agree a successor to the Kyoto Protocol.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, temperatures continue to drop. The latest Nasa satellite readings on global temperatures from the University of Alabama, one of four officially recognised sources of temperature data, show that August was the fourth month this year when temperatures fell below their 30-year average, ie since satellite records began. The US National Climatic Data Center showsis showing that last month in the USA was only the 39th warmest since records began 113 years ago.

So where is the concensus?

Posted by Justin at 10:11 AM | Comments (1)

December 21, 2009

Snow Storm on its Way Tonight

A decent sized storm is expected across UT tonight and tomorrow and hopefully it will add some fresh to Brian Head before we leave on Wed night.

Went out yesterday and it was corduroy and a pretty pleasant day all things considered. Good weather. Not crowded at all. Didn't ski the whole day, but took a few runs with Jarrett.

I am stuck working at the condo with the new job, but sent Jake and Jackson off and took Jarrett to ski school for the day. He is still wedge turning and needs some help. Only two kids in his class which should get him some quality time.

The fireplace and living room are done. Brought my old Sony stereo up and some speakers. Got a Bluray player. Getting settled in nicely.

I will post the results of the storm. In the meantime, hope everyone is enjoying the holidays.

Posted by Justin at 03:23 PM

December 07, 2009

Huge Storm Tonight in AZ, CO, UT

Stay off the roads. Several feet. Blizzard warnings. Big time. A gift to resorts right before the busiest season of the year.

Posted by Justin at 09:33 PM

May 24, 2008

Global Warming Alert--Memorial Day Edition

First, it was 11" of snow in Flagstaff on May 13, now it is the Memorial Day Weekend Weather in Phoenix that saw snow in Flagstaff and Eastern Arizona's White Mountains.

The National Weather Service is projecting lower-than-average highs of 77 degrees today, 84 on Sunday and 87 on Monday. Historically, the temperature this time of the year hits an average of 97 degrees.

The mild weekend comes after an unusual week in which the Valley saw its first triple-digit temperature of the year, including a blistering 110 degrees on Monday, followed by showers Thursday and Friday that broke a three-month dry spell.

Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, where weather officially is gauged, recorded 0.39 inch of rain between Thursday and Friday.

Chandler logged the most rainfall across the Valley, 1.34 inches... May is the second-driest month of the year (June is the driest) in Phoenix. This week's showers surpassed the 0.16 inch of rain the Valley sees on average for the entire month.

Precipitation was minimal in Tucson where only .02 inch of rain fell on Thursday, but Mount Lemmon got dusted with about 3 inches of snow.

In Flagstaff, where more than 3 inches of snow had fallen by Friday afternoon, a winter advisory remains in effect until 6 a.m. today.

In Greenlee County in eastern Arizona, 12.5 inches of snow hit Hannagan Meadow.

We took my wife's Passat up to Payson for the day instead of the Avalanche because at almost $4.00 per gallon, we need to get rid of the SUV. Let's think about that for a second. If indeed, Global Warming was the most dangerous threat to mankind since the Plague or SARS or AIDS or Bird Flu or... If it is the worst thing ever, what IS ACTUALLY PRETTY DAMNED EFFECTIVE is gas in the $4-5 per gallon range. People actually make responsible choices and use less fuel. Sure, some folks don't but lots of others start feeling the pain.

Posted by Justin at 11:16 PM | Comments (1)

May 14, 2008

May 13 - 11" of Snow Falls at Flagstaff

Damn that Global Warming... er... Climate Change:

There were no April showers to bring any May flowers, but many Arizonans woke to snow, spotty rain and strong winds Tuesday morning during the typically warm month of May.

The low-pressure system that brought the wet weather had passed through the state just after noon, but a 30 percent chance of rain in the Valley still existed, according to the National Weather Service.

The Valley saw just trace amounts of rain throughout the morning along with wind gusts of up to 41 mph, according to the weather service. Meanwhile, the Flagstaff airport had about three inches of snow and around 11 inches of snow fell at Sunset Crater northeast of Flagstaff.

Climate Change, baby. Man-made. I drove my SUV to Starbucks today getting 15.6 MPG knowing that I am doing my part to cause Flagstaff snowfall.

Posted by Justin at 01:02 AM | Comments (2)

May 06, 2008

MSNBC Global Warming Story - Penguins in Danger at North Pole

Check at about the 46 second mark. Story about vast expanses of water now present at the North Pole.

I feel sorry for those penguins. Not only are their ice shelves collapsing as evidenced by the dramatic photos used in the story, but they must be extremely lonely SINCE PENGUINS DO NOT LIVE AT THE NORTH POLE, THEY LIVE AT THE SOUTH.

The 15 year old Arctic explorer is kinda cute though. Some kind of fur collared coat wearing Hannah Montana. I like the accent. Her "bum gets cold" when going to the bathroom in the Arctic Circle. And she needed to learn to use a gun to protect against Polar Bears. She would be the bell of the ball at a party in Bitter America where we cling to our guns, except that she is an immigrant and most of us cling to anti-immigrant sentiments.

First, this is problematic because I didn't think Brits were allowed to own or shoot guns. Second, SHOOTING AN EFFING POLAR BEAR? AREN'T THEY ALREADY ABOUT TO ALL DIE FROM GLOBAL WARMING? Sounds like she needs to join the NRA and hunt humans like the rich folks that hunted Ice-T. I want a polar bear coat lined with baby seal fur personally or maybe lined with Eight Belles skin. Shooting Polar bears. My word.

Top notch reporting there MSNBC.

UPDATE:

MSNBC edited the video just about an hour ago. Nice. Solid touch.

Posted by Justin at 12:24 PM | Comments (3)

May 01, 2008

Next Ten Years will have No Global Warming

This article is rather interesting:

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Parts of North America and Europe may cool naturally over the next decade, as shifting ocean currents temporarily blunt the global-warming effect caused by mankind, Germany's Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences said.

Average temperatures in areas such as California and France may drop over the next 10 years, influenced by colder flows in the North Atlantic, said a report today by the institution based in Kiel, Germany. Temperatures worldwide may stabilize in the period.

The study was based on sea-surface temperatures of currents that move heat around the world, and vary from decade to decade. This regional cooling effect may temporarily neutralize the long- term warming phenomenon caused by heat-trapping greenhouse gases building up around the earth, said Richard Wood, a research scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre, a U.K. provider of environmental and weather-related services.

``Those natural climate variations could be stronger than the global-warming trend over the next 10-year period,'' Wood said in an interview. ``Without knowing that, you might erroneously think there's no global warming going on.''

The Leibniz study, co-written by Noel Keenlyside, a research scientist at the institute, will be published in the May 1 issue of the journal Nature.

``If we don't experience warming over the next 10 years, it doesn't mean that greenhouse-gas warming is not with us,'' Keenlyside said in an interview. ``There can be natural fluctuations that may mask climate change in the short term.''

Hmmm. Well, OK, so no global warming for the next ten years. I guess that is good news. Because Climatology is such an accurate science. Let's check this article from January 2008:

THE STARK headline appeared just over a year ago. "2007 to be 'warmest on record,' " BBC News reported on Jan. 4, 2007. Citing experts in the British government's Meteorological Office, the story announced that "the world is likely to experience the warmest year on record in 2007," surpassing the all-time high reached in 1998.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the planetary hot flash: Much of the planet grew bitterly cold.

In South America, for example, the start of winter last year was one of the coldest ever observed. According to Eugenio Hackbart, chief meteorologist of the MetSul Weather Center in Brazil, "a brutal cold wave brought record low temperatures, widespread frost, snow, and major energy disruption." In Buenos Aires, it snowed for the first time in 89 years, while in Peru the cold was so intense that hundreds of people died and the government declared a state of emergency in 14 of the country's 24 provinces. In August, Chile's agriculture minister lamented "the toughest winter we have seen in the past 50 years," which caused losses of at least $200 million in destroyed crops and livestock.

Latin Americans weren't the only ones shivering.

University of Oklahoma geophysicist David Deming, a specialist in temperature and heat flow, notes in the Washington Times that "unexpected bitter cold swept the entire Southern Hemisphere in 2007." Johannesburg experienced its first significant snowfall in a quarter-century. Australia had its coldest ever June. New Zealand's vineyards lost much of their 2007 harvest when spring temperatures dropped to record lows.

Closer to home, 44.5 inches of snow fell in New Hampshire last month, breaking the previous record of 43 inches, set in 1876. And the Canadian government is forecasting the coldest winter in 15 years.

Now all of these may be short-lived weather anomalies, mere blips in the path of the global climatic warming that Al Gore and a host of alarmists proclaim the deadliest threat we face. But what if the frigid conditions that have caused so much distress in recent months signal an impending era of global cooling?

"Stock up on fur coats and felt boots!" advises Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and senior scientist at Moscow's Shirshov Institute of Oceanography. "The latest data . . . say that earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012."

Sorokhtin dismisses the conventional global warming theory that greenhouse gases, especially human-emitted carbon dioxide, is causing the earth to grow hotter. Like a number of other scientists, he points to solar activity - sunspots and solar flares, which wax and wane over time - as having the greatest effect on climate.

"Carbon dioxide is not to blame for global climate change," Sorokhtin writes in an essay for Novosti. "Solar activity is many times more powerful than the energy produced by the whole of humankind." In a recent paper for the Danish National Space Center, physicists Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen concur: "The sun . . . appears to be the main forcing agent in global climate change," they write.

Given the number of worldwide cold events, it is no surprise that 2007 didn't turn out to be the warmest ever. In fact, 2007's global temperature was essentially the same as that in 2006 - and 2005, and 2004, and every year back to 2001. The record set in 1998 has not been surpassed. For nearly a decade now, there has been no global warming. Even though atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to accumulate - it's up about 4 percent since 1998 - the global mean temperature has remained flat. That raises some obvious questions about the theory that CO2 is the cause of climate change.

Yet so relentlessly has the alarmist scenario been hyped, and so disdainfully have dissenting views been dismissed, that millions of people assume Gore must be right when he insists: "The debate in the scientific community is over."

I guess the next ten years may not be so dire for ski resorts. All their efforts and the extra cost of Wind Energy programs must have been what reversed Global Warming and saved the ski industry.

More inconvenient truths. Nobel Prize anyone?

Posted by Justin at 05:52 PM

April 03, 2008

E-mail Exchange on Global Warming

I sent a couple e-mails back and forth with a long time reader and friend Jon Wade at Steamboat Springs Blog about Climate Change. Just wanted to post the text of one of my e-mails to him for public view:

We can keep the world from heating by forcing gas prices to $10 a gallon with Carbon taxes, increasing the cost of every single thing that we consume, and putting the entire world into a recession. If the earth cools, that is great, but even if it doesn't, it is still good for the ski industry and for John Kerry, Algore, and the Kennedy families because the massive recession will not affect their billions and will simply provide less crowded slopes by getting rid of the riff raff like us from their billion dollar playgrounds.

Every time that some ski resort talks about how global warming will impact the sport by shutting down ski resorts that don't get enough snow, they are speculating on Climatologists not having their heads up their ass. But when they talk about the solutions they propose to global warming that are little more than rebranded collectivist ideas under the guise of "saving the environment", we need not speculate on how that will affect the sport. It will increase costs and decrease the number of people that can ski with absolute certainty. We are right at the price point that my wife and I can barely afford to ski with our kids and all the resorts are running round bragging about being "wind powered". How about bragging about being affordable for families?

Ted Turner had this to say about global warming:

Failure to address global warming will have us all dead or eating each other by mid-century.

So says Ted Turner, the restaurateur, environmentalist and former media mogul whose controversial comments have earned him the nickname "Mouth of the South."

If steps aren't taken to stem global warming, "We'll be eight degrees hotter in 30 or 40 years and basically none of the crops will grow," Turner said during a wide-ranging, hour-long interview with PBS's Charlie Rose that aired Tuesday.

"Most of the people will have died and the rest of us will be cannibals," said Turner, 69. "Civilization will have broken down. The few people left will be living in a failed state — like Somalia or Sudan — and living conditions will be intolerable."

One way to combat global warming, Turner said, is to stabilize the population.

"We're too many people; that's why we have global warming," he said. "Too many people are using too much stuff."

Turner suggested that "on a voluntary basis, everybody in the world's got to pledge to themselves that one or two children is it."

8 DEGREES! In light of this, I better stop skiing, driving, breathing CO2,... Or else get ready to start eating people. EATING PEOPLE! This Global Warming crap is just going beyond what can even be considered reasonable. Having to eat people sounds like a pretty inconvenient truth to me.

Posted by Justin at 11:52 AM | Comments (2)

March 31, 2008

Good News for the Southwest--The La Nina that Wasn't

The Arizona Republic has this recap of the 2007-08 winter:

This was supposed to be a dry Arizona winter, deprived of rain and snow by the oceanic weathermaker La Niña.

As sure as it's hot in August, if it's La Niña, it's dry in winter...

How wet was the 2007-08 winter? Pretty wet, though not as wet as 2004-05, the last time reservoirs rose and water flowed down the normally dry lower Salt River.

A few big storms delivered the bulk of the rain and snow in most areas. Four storm systems accounted for nearly all the precipitation recorded in Phoenix and Flagstaff from Nov. 30 through the end of January...

In the high country, the storms pushed snowpack well above normal, as high as 180 percent of the 30-year average in some basins. The San Francisco Peaks above Flagstaff remain at 225 percent of normal.

But this is where it gets interesting. Last year, it was an extremely dry El Nino year. This year, it was an extremely wet La Nina.

What happened to La Niña and its warm, dry winter? That's a question meteorologists will puzzle over for a while.

Temperatures in the Pacific Ocean began dropping off near the equator midway through 2007, signaling the onset of La Niña, one of the most reliable predictors of weather in the Southwest.

For months, climate experts forecasted warm, dry winter conditions across Arizona, an outlook that persisted until the first storms hit in early December.

Paul Iñiguez, a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Phoenix, said this La Niña was the strongest in 35 years and the fourth-strongest in 132 years of record keeping. Such conditions almost always steer storms north of Arizona, drenching the upper tier of states.

But Iñiguez said the forecasts tripped over unexpected differences elsewhere in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, where pockets of warmer water grew, influencing the storm track in ways uncharacteristic of La Niña.

"This year, the systems had access to more moisture from the south," Iñiguez said, moisture that helped fuel the lower northern storm track and give Arizona a juiced-up winter.

Why all these events converged no one can yet say, but the result was one of Arizona's wettest La Niña winters on record.

So what conclusion should I draw? Climatologists are almost certain what La Nina and El Nino mean for the southwest. Yet, here were are and the results the last two years are exactly the opposite of what the Climatologists predicted.

So they will scurry off for another several months to write papers about how they were actually right if they had taken into account some other phenomenon that suddenly emerged and no one considered and that their models simply need some minor tweak made.

Is it possible that the weather is far more complicated than Climatologists believe it to be? That simple hockey sticks and CO2 cannot alter the entire planet or that ocean temperatures are not the only indicator of a wet winter?

While one wetter than expected winter in Arizona may not be more than a happy coincidence, it does call into questions the simplistic nature of many predictive models that Climatologists have convinced us can accurately predict weather patterns during the winter.

I still believe that the Sun and Sun Spots play more of a role in things than Al Gore wants to let on and far more of a role than all the CO2 we can produce.

Posted by Justin at 12:11 AM | Comments (1)

February 21, 2008

The La Nina that Wasn't

On November 4th, I posted about this season's La Nina and the predicted effects on the Southwest:

"La Niña has been closer to above-normal North and below-normal South trends," Pringle said with regard to snow conditions.

Snowfall in the San Juans could be average or a bit below normal. The National Weather Service predicts La Niña's effect on New Mexico and Arizona to be much more apparent, with less precipitation and higher than average temperatures.

In a word--NO. Not so much. Turns out that Wolf Creek in the San Juans is already sitting at very close to 500" and there are still almost two months left in the season. Sunrise and Snowbowl both opened before Christmas and Snowbowl has already received 200"+ for the season.

I am left to ponder the fact that despite almost 100 years of studying El Nino, the folks that make climate predictions have still been unable to predict weather paterns with any accuracy. Last year was an El Nino year, but despite predictions for record snowfall in the Southwest, we got far below average snowfall, so much so that Arizona Snowbowl barely opened for two weeks. This year is a La Nina year and snowfall is above average at three of the four southwest resorts that I ski (Wolf Creek, Brian Head, Sunrise and Snowbowl).

But we do have a looming climate crisis. It is not rising ocean levels, but rather food shortages and starvation:

The United Nations is stepping in to try to rescue Tajikistan from a social catastrophe brought on by severe winter weather. But even if an emergency UN appeal for assistance generates a robust international response, it is questionable whether Tajikistan will be able to avoid entering a downward spiral, featuring pestilence and widespread hunger...

China’s inflation accelerated in January to 7.1 percent - its rate highest in more than a decade - amid snowstorms that fueled a spike in food costs, according to data reported Tuesday...

But economists have raised their inflation forecasts for the first half of 2008 after freak snowstorms battered China’s south, killing millions of farm animals and wrecking crops.

Chinese leaders are especially worried about the political impact of rapidly rising food costs, which hit the country’s poor majority hard.

The winter even included snow in Baghdad for the first time in a century:

Snow fell on Baghdad on Friday for the first time in memory, and delighted residents declared it an omen of peace.

“It is the first time we’ve seen snow in Baghdad,” said 60-year-old Hassan Zahar. “We’ve seen sleet before, but never snow. I looked at the faces of all the people, they were astonished,” he said.

It has been an odd year. One that has been wetter than expected in the southwest, which we badly need. Somehow, I don't think that the Chinese, when confronted with calls for them to cut greenhouse gasses to combat global warming and when faced with a massive famine crisis because of an abnormally cold winter, will be inclined to take steps to be more environmentally friendly. And I don't think that the myriad of articles promising the demise of skiing are particullarly grounded in fact. Scares like this in particullar:

PARK CITY, UTAH (AP) — Another winter storm headed to Utah could bring two feet of snow and frigid temperatures to the Wasatch mountains. But don't let that fool you.

Utah's trademark Greatest Snow on Earth could be a memory by 2075, say a pair of Colorado climatologists, who warn that global warming could shrink the ski season to a mere two months a year.

Some interesting reading on the subject can be found at Warren Miller's New West Blog. He is skeptical of the global warming hysteria so prevalent in the ski industry too. What if we are wrong about the long term predictions for global warming? 2008's snowfall in Asia provides a disturbing prediction of what global cooling or a new mini-iceage will look like.


Posted by Justin at 02:06 PM | Comments (1)

December 06, 2007

Warren Miller Takes on Global Warming

Got sent a link to a new skiing blog today and was reviewing it. Came across this article from the Pimp Daddy of skiing, Warren Miller.

If you are to believe Nobel Prize winner Al Gore, who also received an Academy Award for his documentary about global warming, everyone should immediately sell any ski or snowboard equipment they own and give up their futile search for powder.

To that scenario I say, “Forget it, Al!” All weather is unusual and the snow will show up and everyone will forget all of the doom and gloom of last winter...

After many years of traveling the world, everywhere I’ve filmed the weather was always unusual. Do I think the unusual weather conditions during the last decade are based solely on internal combustion engines?

A resounding, “No!” ...

There are many other factors besides Al Gore that affect the overall temperature of our planet. Of great significance are solar flares and cosmic radiation. One solar flare explosion can be the equivalent of several dozen atomic bomb blasts. When the radiation collides with the earth’s atmosphere, it causes more clouds to form and they lower the overall temperature.

So put all of this information together and chances are you will be making your winter reservations at the same time based on when we had them last year. Scientific evidence relating to potential snow conditions is completely irrelevant to your winter vacation plans.

So get out in the garage and tune up whatever you will be riding on this winter, get your body in shape and try not to get freaked out by Nobel Prize-winner Al Gore. Even though he did invent e-mail and the science of global warming in the office of his air-conditioned, 22-room home, that is fortunately a very long way from any ski resort. Or, at least, it’s a short flight in his private jet.

Warren Miller makes movies too. Probably better documentaries than Al Gore does.

The UK Independent has this article on changes in solar activity that may just hold the key to Global Warming. Color me surprised when they point out that this gigantic ball of molten energy that appears for approximately half of each day and causes the hemispheres of the Earth to experience hot and cold cycles called “seasons” based on the amount of energy the receive from it may actually be more important to the temperature of the globe than the Carbon Dioxide emissions and “greenhouse gases”.

What is problematic is that the Independent's editors think that the prospect of a mini-Ice Age, starvation, and famine provide a "RAY OF HOPE" to combat global warming. I guess that perspective relies on you believing Global Warming is a major problem and not a cyclical event caused by the molten ball of gas we call a "SUN". I am afraid that the cure may be worse than the disease.

Sunspots – dark magnetic blotches on the Sun’s surface – come and go in a roughly 11-year cycle of activity first noticed in 1843. It’s related to the motion of super-hot, electrically charged gas inside the Sun – a kind of internal conveyor belt where vast sub-surface rivers of gas take 40 years to circulate from the equator to the poles and back. Somehow, in a way not very well understood, this circulation produces the sunspot cycle in which every 11 years there is a sunspot maximum followed by a minimum. But recently the Sun’s internal circulation has been failing. In May 2006 this conveyor belt had slowed to a crawl – a record low. Nasa scientist David Hathaway said: “It’s off the bottom of the charts… this has important repercussions for future solar activity.” What’s more, it’s not the only indicator that the Sun is up to something.

...Following the discovery of the cycle, astronomers looked back through previous observations and were able to see it clearly until they reached the 17th century, when it seemed to disappear. It turned out to be a real absence, not one caused by a lack of observations. Astronomers called it the “Maunder Minimum.” It was an astonishing discovery: our Sun can change. Between 1645 and 1715 sunspots were rare. About 50 were observed; there should have been 50,000.

Ever since the sunspot cycle was discovered, researchers have looked for its rhythm superimposed on the Earth’s climate. In some cases it’s there but usually at low levels. But there was something strange about the time when the sunspots disappeared that left scientists to ponder if the sun’s unusual behaviour could have something to do with the fact that the 17th century was also a time when the Earth’s northern hemisphere chilled with devastating consequences.

Scientists call that event the “Little Ice Age” and it affected Europe at just the wrong time. In response to the more benign climate of the earlier Medieval Warm Period, Europe’s population may have doubled. But in the mid-17th century demographic growth stopped and in some areas fell, in part due to the reduced crop yields caused by climate change. Bread prices doubled and then quintupled and hunger weakened the population. The Italian historian Majolino Bisaccioni suggested that the wave of bad weather and revolutions might be due to the influence of the stars. But the Jesuit astronomer Giovanni Battista Riccioli speculated that fluctuations in the number of sunspots might be to blame, for he had noticed they were absent.

Looking back through sunspot records reveals many periods when the Sun’s activity was high and low and in general they are related to warm and cool climatic periods. As well as the Little Ice Age, there was the weak Sun and the cold Iron Age, the active sun and the warm Bronze Age. Scientists cannot readily explain how the Sun’s activity affects the Earth but it is an observational correlation that the Sun’s moods have a climatic effect on the Earth.

This is hugely problematic. Global Warming is not a problem. We are at the top end of a solar cycle and the direction that things go from here is uncertain. Does the Earth continue to heat like a hockey stick, which is completely unsupported by both historic evidence and by the results of any scientific study? Historic evidence has very dire predictions for the Earth. Historic predictions are that the Earth will experience a cooling period like it has several times over the last several million years. And if it is like the mini-Ice Age, that may mean starvation and famines, not simply rising ocean levels and more storms.

Posted by Justin at 11:46 AM

November 04, 2007

More on La Nina

This site makes things look even worse:

The La Nina climate signal in the West seems more reliable than the El Nino signal. This is especially true in the Southwest. El Nino generally brings wet weather there in winter, but there are a number of exceptions. La Nina brings dry winters to the Southwest, and there are no exceptions, during the past 65 years. That is, La Nina brings much more consistent consequences in the Southwest.

Posted by Justin at 03:04 PM | Comments (1)

La Nina's Effect on Southwest Skiing

The Montrose Express has some info on La Nina:

MONTROSE — La Niña's influence on southwest Colorado ski resorts may result in less snowfall than normal, said Jim Pringle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.

"It looks like it could be an interesting winter," Pringle said. "La Niña is gonna be a little stronger than what was indicated even a month ago. The stronger a pattern is, the greater the confidence that these events with above and below normal (conditions) will occur."

Last year there was a moderate El Niño pattern through winter months. El Niño refers to an event in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are above normal. La Niña, also known as "El Viejo," occurs when such ocean temperatures are below normal.

"Sea surface temperature patterns influence jet stream flows and jet stream flows drive storm tracks," Pringle said.

In the case of La Niña, the jet stream tends to fall through the Pacific Northwest. This could result in above-average snowfall through areas including the Great Lakes and Northern Rockies. Steamboat Springs appears likely to receive above-average snow this winter, he said.

"La Niña has been closer to above-normal North and below-normal South trends," Pringle said with regard to snow conditions.

Snowfall in the San Juans could be average or a bit below normal. The National Weather Service predicts La Niña's effect on New Mexico and Arizona to be much more apparent, with less precipitation and higher than average temperatures.

This does not bode well for Brian Head, Sunrise, or Arizona Snowbowl who had poor winters last year despite a weak El Nino.

Last season did not conform to predictions based on the El Nino, so I am hoping that for the Southwest, this season will not suffer because of La Nina.

Posted by Justin at 02:55 PM

April 08, 2007

The Year That Was in Utah

The SLC Tribune has an article on the year that was in Utah:

"We got some good early snow," he said.

But starting in November, a high pressure ridge parked itself over the West until about February.

That weather pattern acted as a bubble, forcing snowstorms to other areas, he said.

Utah's loss was Canada's gain, as many storms shifted to the north, McInerney explained.

Meager snowpacks, which reached about 50 percent of average in northern Utah, are not only bad news for skiing, but they also spell trouble for the Salt Lake Valley's water resources in the summer.

This season sucked in a bad way for me. Early snow, but no mid season snow at all. I finally had my place done and Brian Head got 225" of snow (and a huge chunk of that came in March). Normal snowfall is over 400".

But take what you get and thank the Ski Gods for the wonderful sport. It still was a ski season and the laws of averages mean that sooner or later we will have another 600" winter like two years ago.

Posted by Justin at 11:21 PM | Comments (1)

March 10, 2007

IT IS HOT

It is spring break for Jake and Jarrett so we are prepping to head back north for a bit. A quick check of the weather at BH--mid-50's all week. Not a cloud or storm in sight.

I got an e-mail last week asking the following:

I don't know if you will have this info, but if not, maybe you can point me in the right direction. Do you know if there is enough snow to ski Sunrise at the end of March. I am trying to put together a trip with some friends, but it would be a real disappointment if there is not going to be decent skiing.

Bad news folks--it has been a light snow year down south despite the promise of an El Nino year. BH is sitting right at 200" with less than a month to go and a normal snowfall of approximately 400". Sunrise has a 20-40" base and it was 60 there yesterday. Might want to bring an extra $50 for P-tex or rent some skis. Here is my response:

It is pretty sparce right now. They have a 30-39" base right now and today it was almost 85 in PHX. That means it is in the high to mid 50's at Sunrise. I am betting that they have maybe another week or two at most of being open before the snow is gone.

Honestly, this weekend or next will probably be the last that they are open unless there is another big storm (which mid-March or later storms are pretty rare) and it would take a 1-2' storm to keep them open.

Sorry to disappoint, and I could be (and hope I am) wrong.

Point is--if you enjoy skiing, don't wait around. The season is almost over and especially down south, this may be the last weekend or certainly the last week upcoming.

Another season almost in the books and I am stuck around 10 DAYS! I had 25 in last year at this point. 10 DAYS! Do you know how bad that sucks considering I have a condo at the base of a resort and work a job where I can go skiing almost whenever I want? That is how bad the snow has been. It started late and if not for the 5-6' the last week of Feb, I may not even have in 10 days. The base barely got deeper than the stumps and gravel at Brian Head and if I am scared to cut through the trees or off to the side of a run, it takes most of the fun out of things.

So mutter a quick prayer under your breath that there will be a freakish storm system in mid-March that dumps 5-10' over the next month so we get even close to a normal snowpack and so that I can get closer to 20 days.

UPDATE:

I have the top off of the Wrangler today and it is mid-80's in PHX. That is the downside of spring. The weather gets so beautiful that you start having other stuff to do besides ski.

WEAR SUNSCREEN. On the slopes. In the Jeep. Now is when you get the racoon eyes and it ain't fun to have your face peeling.

Posted by Justin at 12:32 PM

February 28, 2007

Global Warming and Godwin's Law

For those of you unfamiliar with Godwin's Law of Internet Discussions, I am posting wiki's summary:

Godwin's Law (also known as Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies) is a mainstay of Internet culture, an adage formulated by Mike Godwin in 1990. The law states: "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one."[1]

Godwin's Law does not dispute whether any particular reference or comparison to Hitler or the Nazis might be apt. It is precisely because such a reference or comparison may sometimes be appropriate, Godwin has argued,[2] that overuse of the Hitler/Nazi comparison should be avoided, as it robs the valid comparisons of their impact...

There is a tradition in many newsgroups and other Internet discussion forums that once such a comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically "lost" whatever debate was in progress. This principle is itself frequently referred to as Godwin's Law. Thus Godwin's Law serves to impose an upper bound on thread length in general.

Just a primer for Ellen Goodman's article in the Boston Globe in which she makes the following statement:

I would like to say we're at a point where global warming is impossible to deny. Let's just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers, though one denies the past and the other denies the present and future.

I add this to Heidi Cullen of the Weather Channel's Statement from December on her blog:

If a meteorologist has an AMS Seal of Approval, which is used to confer legitimacy to TV meteorologists, then meteorologists have a responsibility to truly educate themselves on the science of global warming. (One good resource if you don't have a lot of time is the Pew Center's Climate Change 101.)

Meteorologists are among the few people trained in the sciences who are permitted regular access to our living rooms. And in that sense, they owe it to their audience to distinguish between solid, peer-reviewed science and junk political controversy. If a meteorologist can't speak to the fundamental science of climate change, then maybe the AMS shouldn't give them a Seal of Approval. Clearly, the AMS doesn't agree that global warming can be blamed on cyclical weather patterns. It's like allowing a meteorologist to go on-air and say that hurricanes rotate clockwise and tsunamis are caused by the weather.

This is scary stuff. And this is not scientific stuff either. The Scientific community should not run around intimidating scientist that offer alternative viewpoints or compare them to Holocaust deniers.

Global Warming Alarmists want us to believe that Global Warming is caused almost completely by man, is going to lead to massive hurricanes and rising ocean levels, is going to continue exponentially, will destroy the polar icecaps, cannot be reversed, and requires massive changes to our way of life or the entire world is in danger. And if you deny it, you are a Holocaust denier and should be ridiculed or stripped of your scientific credentials. I don't like scare tactics and while the science supports the existance of Global Warming, the rest of the Alarmist's argument is a political statement, not good science.

Again, I will point to things that we can do to save the Earth that do not require Global Warming to doom the planet as a motivating factor. First, we can recycle. Second, we can conserve electricity and gas. We can do tons of things to do that including car pool, turn lights off, use low energy lighting. We can drive cleaner vehicles. We can drive vehicles that fit with the size of our family, not with the size of our genitals.

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Posted by Justin at 11:05 AM

February 08, 2007

Arizona Weather from AZCentral.com

The Arizona Republic has this update on conditions. While I disagree that weather in the 50's is good ski weather, some snow coming bodes well.

Ski and snowboard areas near Flagstaff and Greer expect snow showers this weekend.

Arizona Snowbowl currently has packed powder at depths ranging from 11 to 32 inches, Snowbowl officials said. The Agassiz, Hart Prairie and Sunset lifts are all in operation with the Agassiz running only to Midway.

Weather conditions at the Snowbowl this weekend are expected to be great for skiing and snowboarding with partly sunny skies today, Friday and Saturday with lows in the mid-50s.

There is a slight chance of rain Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. Snow showers are possible Sunday.

Sunrise Park Resort currently has 40 to 47 inches of packed powder on the slopes. Sunrise Peak and Cyclone Peak are completely open except for Cyclone Ally, on Cyclone Peak, Sunrise officials said. Apache Peak will be closed until the lifts can be repaired.

Partly cloudy skies and highs in the low 50s are expected today, Friday and Saturday, around Sunrise with a slight chance of snow showers Saturday night, according to the National Weather Service.

While conditions are good in most areas of the ski resorts, some areas have only thin layers of snow and officials urge skiers and snowboarders to be careful of obstacles.

Posted by Justin at 01:30 PM

October 11, 2006

Wolf Creek gets 22" During Latest Storm

Wolf Creek has already received 42" of snow so far this year and got another 22" the last couple of days.

Today is my birthday and for my birthday, it appears that both Brian Head and Wolf Creek got some snow. But the best part is the news from Arizona Snowbowl:

Ski fans will rejoice to know that while it will be a sunny day in the Valley today, a light dusting of snow last night added to the about 2 inches of snow that fell Sunday night and Monday morning at higher elevations outside Flagstaff. The Arizona Snowbowl ski area reports snow at about the 9,500 foot level.

Snowbowl Marketing Director Dave Smith said, "Hopes are high here among all of us that this snow is the first sign that we're going to have a great season. It would be terrific if we could be open by Thanksgiving."

Let us hope.

Posted by Justin at 09:52 AM | Comments (1)

September 26, 2006

JP Has Some Sick Shots of Berthoud Pass from Saturday

JP at Colorado Backcountry took several pics this weekend hitting the dump. Several are knee to waist deep. From the shots, it looks like the storm brought a decent amount of snow.

JP always has me jonesing. He bought a new sled and spends his time hitting backcountry stashes all over the Divide.

If you are not a regular, check out his site. He does not post as frequently as I do because unlike me who hangs at my condo at the resort, he is hiking and often camping in the backcountry. The pics he posts are phenomenol.

Posted by Justin at 10:19 AM | Comments (1)

September 25, 2006

Huge Storm Across Colorado Dumps Over 2' on Vail

Do I really need to add much to the title? Breck, Keystone, and Vail all received between 18" and 2'+ of new snow this weekend and late last week.

Checking reports from A-basin and Loveland and all reported they had at least 8" as of Thursday with more expected through the weekend.

We are now counting the weeks instead of months until ski season opens. Pretty soon we will be talking days.

Posted by Justin at 05:25 PM | Comments (1)

September 18, 2006

Winter is On Its Way at Big Sky

Dax at Big Sky took this awesome photo of Lone Peak this morning and sent it to me.

If you like resorts that offer 5,000 Acres of skiing and close to 4,000 feet of vertical, no lift lines (almost ever), and 400+ inches of snow each year, you might want to give Big Sky a try. I personally hate places like Big Sky though. I mean, once you have that kind of experience, you just don't even want to get out the skis and go anywhere else. It really just isn't fair.

Again, FREQUENCY PASS! Plain and simple. If you know you are going to go to Big Sky, the Frequency Pass is almost like stealing. It takes three-four days to make it worth the $69 because of the discounts. Or better yet, a day or two of the two weeks of free skiing, or of the half priced days for frequency pass holders. I am working out details of my trip up there this year.

Posted by Justin at 11:17 AM | Comments (1)

September 17, 2006

Nice Early Snow at Steamboat

Jon at Steamboat Blog posts this little nugget:

I just heard from a friend that Buffalo Pass just above Steamboat Springs got 1.5 feet of fresh snow last night. That means that the ski area probably got over a foot on top. As you can see from the picture below the grass on Heavenly Daze is virtually covered which is no small feat because it was pretty tall and standing a couple of days ago. It is still snowing up there and it just started snowing nice sized flakes here at the base of the Steamboat Ski area. The forecast is for more snow tonight so I'll keep you posted. I'm trying to get up the gondola to see it for myself but it is closed due to the weather at the moment.

I talked to Jon yesterday and he sent several other pics of snow across the Front Range. We are full swing into fall now.

Posted by Justin at 11:42 AM

September 15, 2006

El Nino is Coming

From Oregon, it appears that El Nino is coming which is bad news for them. El Nino tends to dry out the Pacific Northwest, but dumps snow and rain on California and the Southwest.

There's worrisome signs for the upcoming ski season. Climate scientists with the National Weather Service see El Niño conditions developing over the ocean. Correspondent Tom Banse explains what that means for our weather.

El Niño is the name for a warming pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon affects weather around the globe.
...
Instead, Southern California and the Southwest will get some of our rain. Mass says this El Niño is still revving up.

Please let this be true for us in Arizona and Southern Utah. This site explains the effect in more detain and has actual data corresponding to the increases or decreases in average snowfall associated with El Nino:

El Nino strongly favors only Southern California, Arizona and far southern Utah, with milder effects extending to the southern Sierra and New Mexico. It may surprise people how small the correlations are at Tahoe and in southern Colorado. Everyone remembers the record Sierra snow during the record El Nino of 1982-83. But the 3rd and 4th strongest El Ninos (1992 and 1987) were severe drought years at Tahoe, and there are several good La Nina seasons, probably assisted by colder temperatures minimizing low elevation rain. The most southwestern locations in Colorado (Purgatory, Telluride and Red Mt. Pass) have even smaller correlations than North Tahoe.
...
With the exceptions noted above (Brian Head and Steamboat) El Nino/La Nina have minimal predictive value for Utah and Colorado ski areas.

Here is what their chart says about BH and the Southwest:

Area Monthly Seasonal Seasons
Southern California Composite (7,000 - 8,000) 24.6% 56.6% 31
Arizona Snowbowl, AZ (9,500) 23.0% 58.8% 15
Brian Head, Utah (9,770) 21.0% 50.2% 15
Arizona Snowbowl, AZ (10,800) 20.5% 50.7% 16

The monthly correlations are not large enough to have much predictive value. But by combining 6 consecutive months together to form seasonal data, the correlations for some areas get into the 50% range. This fits with observed experience that in big El Nino or La Nina years the expected effects occur from time to time but not consistently.

Posted by Justin at 12:17 PM | Comments (1)

August 25, 2006

El Nino May be Coming

The National Weather Services is reporting a possibly weak el Nino this year.

he statistical and coupled model forecasts range from ENSO-neutral to weak warm (El Niño) episode conditions for the remainder of 2006 and into early 2007 (Fig. 4). The forecasts are consistent with the recent build up in upper-ocean heat content along the equator (Fig. 3), indicating a trend toward warm-episode conditions. In the absence of any strong intraseasonal (Madden-Julian Oscillation – MJO) activity, a continued slow trend toward warm-episode conditions is expected. Therefore, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue for the next one to three months, with a 50% chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop by the end of 2006.

So what does that mean for me? These folks can tell you:

With El Nino conditions, precipitation and temperature effects combine to accentuate the effect on snowfall. In the Southwest, there is a slight tendency toward cooler winters, and a strong tendency toward wet winters, which makes higher elevation snowpack deeper. In the Pacific Northwest, El Nino winters are warmer and drier than usual, so that at a given elevation 1) less precipitation occurs, and 2) the freezing level is higher, so the type of precipitation is more likely to be rain, and 3) the accumulation season is shorter. All three conspire to produce a smaller snowpack accumulation by the end of winter in the Pacific Northwest.

This bodes well for places like Wolf Creek, Brian Head, Snowbowl, Sunrise, etc., that lie in the Southern Rockies. Now mind you that climatologists never say "this is the case" but rather "there is a xxx% chance of blah blah blah." So take it for what it is worth. But regardless, it still is encouraging if this turns out to be the case. We are experiencing an extremely wet monsoon in Arizona which also bodes well for skiing down south.

Posted by Justin at 01:38 PM | Comments (1)

February 02, 2006

More High Pressure (Warm and No Snow) at Brian Head

The storm track is getting pushed north again and Brian Head is in for a few 40 degree days coming up this weekend and next week. I was planning on taking another load of stuff from IKEA up to the condo this weekend, but now may unload the truck and reschedule.

I am planning a "friends and family" trip for the weekend of the 17th through the 20th to break in the new condo. We are straight up going for the 70's phone booth game and seeing how many folks we can cram into the place. I am thinking around 8-10 is doable. I bought some bunk beds at IKEA to match my queen bed upstairs. I am getting my office together and preparing to start the Summer Semester of this year on my MBA.

It is already February and it seems like this season never really started. It has been a bad year down south for snow, but here is hoping that the next two months make up for it. Brian Head has had 109" so far TOTAL THIS YEAR. They had that by the middle of November last year.

Posted by Justin at 12:58 PM

November 18, 2005

High Pressure over the West Keeping Things Dry and Warm

I just got back from the condo in Utah. Weather was picture perfect if you like warm and sunny. Unfortunately, warm and sunny is incompatible with skiing as is bare and rocky which accurately describes the terrain at Brian Head.

It is a classic Good News-Bad News situation for me. I have a third floor condo with a large loft that we are remodeling. We have been removing carpet, trip, appliances, cabinets, etc., and preparing to put in new floors and a new kitchen plus painting the place. Good News is that it makes the work much easier to not have to deal with snow on the ground. Bad News is that I bought to place for skiing and the season was supposed to open November 12th. I should have been skiing all this week not working.

As I said, it is a third floor condo and since there is not several feet of snow on the ground outside, we were able to use the express "elevator" method of disposing of the remodel waste by throwing stuff off the balcony. We had a serious internal debate about tossing the fridge, but decided to haul the major appliances down the three flights of stairs. The cabinets were not so lucky. While my week as spent lamenting the fact that there is no snow, I did actually enjoy the hell out of breathing paint fumes and watching various household items explode from a 35 ft drop.

Most of the weather folks are thinking that the high pressure will lift some time right after Thanksgiving and we will start getting some winter weather. It is sure messing with my holiday plans.

Posted by Justin at 11:03 AM